Has Change Begun Already? Latent Demand for Democratic Reform Among Nigerian Citizens

Has Change Begun Already? Latent Demand for Democratic Reform Among Nigerian Citizens

Many sub-Saharan African countries pursued democratic reforms in the 1990s, but progress soon stalled. One common explanation is that citizens' own preferences favor personal and particularistic politics, suggesting the path to deeper democracy is narrow. This study tests an alternative: that demand for democratic reform runs deeper than it appears but stays latent as people manage what they see as limited choices. Through a field experiment with citizens in two Nigerian constituencies, Bende and Baruten/Kaiama, the authors examine whether signaling the plausibility of reform shifts political attitudes and preferences. Both treatment and control participants moved toward pro-democratic stances, a pattern not observed in twenty years of similar research. The findings suggest that latent demand for democratic reform may run much deeper and wider than previously thought.


Investigators

Marco Castradori, Fellow for Comparative Research
William Minozzi, Professor, Political Science
Michael Neblo, Director of the Institute for Democratic Engagement and Accountability (IDEA); Professor of Political Science and (by courtesy) Philosophy, Communication, and Public Policy