IDEA, in collaboration with the Machine-Assisted Human Decision-making (MAHD) Lab directed by Dr. Ryan Kennedy, has launched Second Raven, a new Substack newsletter for anyone who wants to understand what public opinion polls actually tell us and, just as importantly, where they could be misleading.

Polls shape the way Americans talk about politics. They drive news coverage, influence elected officials, and shape how citizens think of those of other parties or views. But too often, the way poll questions are designed, and the way results are reported, can create a picture of public opinion that is misleading or outright wrong. Second Raven was created to bring academic rigor to that problem. Each post takes a real, widely reported poll result and walks readers through what the numbers really mean, what the question design might have gotten wrong, and what we find when we ask the question with a more robust method.

For example, a YouGov poll conducted after the assassination of Charlie Kirk was reported as showing that 11 percent of Americans believed political violence was sometimes justified, a number that would translate to nearly 50 million people. That finding was cited across national media and by political leaders on both sides. 

The Second Raven team reran the poll using AI-assisted cognitive interviewing to understand what people were actually thinking. The result: the vast majority of those who said political violence could be justified were imagining historical or hypothetical scenarios, not endorsing violence in America today. The real number was close to zero.

That is exactly the kind of gap between headlines and reality that Second Raven exists to close. This week’s newsletter is on gerrymandering, and finds that in fact, Republicans and Democrats alike only support partisan redistricting in response to the same actions by the other side.

Subscribe to Second Raven at secondraven.substack.com and follow IDEA for updates.