In 2024 we worked in Nigeria, building on work in Australia, the UK, and Chile, stretching the adaptability of our Deliberative Town Hall toolkit. The opportunity was presented through IDEA Fellow, Marco Castradori, a PhD candidate at Princeton, who had lived in Nigeria and cultivated relationships with elected officials there.
"It was an incredible new opportunity," said Dr. Michael Neblo, IDEA's director. "IDEA had already expanded beyond the U.S., working in countries like Australia and the U.K., and even gaining valuable experience in Chile, a non-English speaking country in the global South. However, Nigeria presented a distinct set of challenges and opportunities. We needed to adapt our online town halls to a context with lower internet access and find ways to share background information in a country with varying literacy rates. However, the prospect of exploring how Deliberative Town Halls could function in a rapidly growing, diverse, and dynamic nation like Nigeria, which is poised to become the world's third most populous country by 2050, was both exciting and immensely rewarding. It was an unparalleled chance to strengthen democracy in such a critical context."
IDEA collaborated closely to develop survey instruments for the experiment. Rather than text, background materials were disseminated through video to ensure that all citizens could access the necessary information before the event. Due to the limited and unreliable internet access, Marco and our partner in Nigeria, NOI Polls, established six in-person locations with internet connectivity. These locations were integrated into a Zoom meeting with the participating Members of the National Assembly. In-person facilitators present at these locations facilitated the collection of questions and comments from participants, which were then transmitted to the central moderation team.
In January 2024, the town halls facilitated discussions between the citizens of Bende and Baruten/Kaiama and their respective representatives, Hon. Benjamin Kalu and Hon. Mohammed Omar Bio. The primary focus of these discussions was governance, with participants engaging in debates regarding Nigeria's progress, deliberating between "small, incremental steps" and "radical reforms" as the most effective approach. The consensus in both Bende and Baruten/Kaiama leaned toward gradual improvements, emphasizing the importance of consistent, small steps to fortify democratic processes.
In Baruten/Kaiama, there was a subtle inclination towards addressing national concerns, underscored by a participant's remark: "This meeting exhibits unity; unity is imperative for our community, state, and Nigeria." This sentiment echoed in Bende, with participants emphasizing the need to prioritize national issues while acknowledging the significance of local concerns.
Key Findings:
1. Increased Approval of Members: The DTHs boosted Hon. Kalu and Hon. Bio's approval ratings and re-election prospects, even positively influencing non-attendees. The events also enhanced constituents' perception of the representatives, associating them with positive traits and fewer negative characteristics.
2. Increase in Preference for Democratic Reform: After the DTH, there was an approximate 5% increase in prioritizing "making good laws for the whole country" among respondents in both regions, indicating a shift towards more national rather than parochial goals. There was also a 7% increase in preference for legislators to work for all Nigerians rather than just fight for their region.
3. Infrastructure Priorities: Healthcare and education were prioritized over roads and electricity, with specific projects like a diagnostics center in Bende and a University of Agriculture in Kaiama being preferred.
4. Diverse Demographic Participation: Both town halls successfully engaged a diverse, representative set of participants.
5. High Satisfaction with DTHs and Demand for More: Participants expressed high satisfaction with the experience and a strong desire for more DTHs, indicating willingness to engage in future events.
6. Strong Potential for for Spillover Effects: The positive impact on attendees and non-attendees suggests that DTHs could significantly enhance democratic engagement and strengthen connections between Nigerian citizens and their representatives.
"Quite simply, nothing like this has ever been done in Nigeria before," says Castradori. Many sub-Saharan African countries pursued democratic reforms in the 1990s, but progress soon stalled, leading observers to wonder whether African civil society could match the institutional changes. Many believe African citizens prefer personal and particularistic politics, or at least they cannot envision the alternative well enough to demand specific reforms. However, the results from these DTHs strongly suggest that it's not that Nigerians prefer clientelist politics but that their apparent support is a contingent, strategic response to constrained circumstances. Not only did participants in the DTHs move strongly towards support for democratic reform, but, according to post-survey data followed by interviews, even those who were not invited to the event but heard about it changed their opinions towards reform. In interviews after the DTH, one participant said, "This was the first time I've ever felt like a real citizen instead of a pauper going to see the big man." When interviewers asked participants if they thought this DTH would have any natural, meaningful effect, a few expressed doubts, leading another to reply, "Change has begun already. Since changes in [Nigerian democracy], no one has ever called a meeting like this. So, with this meeting, Change has already started. Now, change is for us to keep it going."
"What we may have uncovered here, and what we're testing next, is if these "spillover" effects are a sign of deep latent demand for democratic reform in this young and quickly growing democracy," Neblo says.
Castradori is currently drafting an article on this fieldwork along with IDEA Director of Research Dr. William Minozzi and Dr. Neblo.
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