Working Papers

UK Deliberative Town Halls: Policing, Affective Polarization
Authors: William Minozzi, Michael A. Neblo

On 28 March 2023, we organized a Deliberative Town Hall (DTH) in England and Wales. The topic was the policing in the United Kingdom (UK). To study the effects of attendance at this event, we embedded it within a field experiment, with both a pre-event and a post-event survey. This registration is occurring after the data has been collected and cleaned, but before any analysis has been conducted. The experiment includes outcomes that are grouped in several different families, and this registration primarily concerns the effects of attendance at the DTH on affective polarization.

UK Deliberative Town Halls: Policing, Trust and Approval
Authors: William Minozzi, Michael A. Neblo

UK Deliberative Town Halls: Policing, Interest and Attention
Authors: William Minozzi, Michael A. Neblo

UK Deliberative Town Halls: Policing, Opinion on Oversight
Authors: William Minozzi, Michael A. Neblo

Nigeria Deliberative Town Hall Bende: National v. Ethnic Identity
Authors: Marco Castradori, Michael A. Neblo, William Minozzi

On February 3, 2024, the Democracy Institute organized a hybrid online/in-person Deliberative Town Hall in Baruten/Kaiama, Nigeria. The event focused on the policing infrastructure of the area. This working paper details the findings of a field experiment conducted at the event. It studies the effects of attending the town hall on the attendees’ sense of national versus ethnic identity.

Nigeria Deliberative Town Hall Bende: Opinions & Vote Intention About the Honourable
Authors: Marco Castradori, Michael A. Neblo, William Minozzi

This working paper explores the effects of attending a hybrid Deliberative Town Hall (DTH) held on 27 January 2024 in Bende, Nigeria, focused on infrastructural development. Embedded within a field experiment, the study evaluates how participation in the event shaped attendees' national versus ethnic identity. Data was collected through both pre- and post-event surveys, with outcomes grouped across multiple thematic families.

Nigeria Deliberative Town Halls Baruten/Kaiama: Current Evaluations of Nigerian Democracy’s Future
Authors: Marco Castradori, Michael A. Neblo, William Minozzi

On February 3, 2024, a hybrid online and in-person Deliberative Town Hall was organized by the Democracy Institute in Baruten/Kaiama, Nigeria. The event’s topic was the policing infrastructure and its development in the area. This work was a collaborative effort by Marco Castradori, Michael Neblo, and William Minozzi. This working paper details a field experiment with both pre- and post-event surveys. The study’s primary goal was to measure the effects of attending the town hall on the participants' current evaluations of Nigerian democracy.

Logos, Ethos, & Pathos: Mechanisms of Persuasion in a Deliberative Field Experiment
Authors: Michael A. Neblo, Kevin M. Esterling, David Lazer, William Minozzi
APSA Annual Meeting Paper 

Prepared for the 2012 Midwest Political Science Association meeting, this working paper explores how rhetorical appeals (logos, ethos, and pathos) operate during deliberative experiments. It analyses data from a field experiment and argues that ethos (credibility) and pathos (emotional appeals) can be as important as logical arguments in persuading citizenspolisci.osu.edu.

A Theory of Deliberation as Interactive Reasoning
Authors: Michael Neblo, David Siegel, William Minozzi
APSA Annual Meeting Paper 

This paper introduces a formal model of the “ideal speech situation,” where participants in deliberation aim to understand and be understood rather than to influence outcomes strategically. It examines how consensus emerges through reason-giving and challenges among actors, and how the dynamics of deliberation shift depending on the group's composition. 

Thrasymachus's Blush: Political Psychology and the Road to Democratic Realism
Authors: Michael A. Neblo, William Minozzi

This article explores the emotional and social dimensions of blushing, arguing that it plays a crucial role in signaling moral character, sincerity, and social attunement. By examining philosophical, psychological, and physiological perspectives, the author shows how blushing functions as a visible, involuntary expression that reinforces ethical behavior and social trust. 

An Experimental Comparison of AI-Enabled Semi-Structured Interviews and Fixed Surveys: Response Patterns, Quality, and Representation

Authors: Michael A. Neblo, William Minozzi, and Jon Green

This working paper shows that using AI chatbots for political interviews can generate significantly richer, more detailed data than traditional fixed surveys. The authors note that future research should examine how AI interview design, its tone, structure, and cues shape how people form and express opinions. Understanding these effects is key to judging the long-term reliability of AI-based public opinion research.
 

How We Do Things with Surveys: Recognizing Polls as ‘Speech Acts’ Will Improve the Science of Public Opinion

Authors: Michael A. Neblo, Jon Green, William Minozzi

This working paper argues that opinion surveys are not mechanical measurements but conversational 'speech acts' between researchers and respondents. Develops a speech-act perspective that unifies anomalies in survey research and suggests methodological innovations to strengthen the science of public opinion.
 

Two Field Experiments on Leadership and Political Persuasion 

Authors: William Minozzi, Michael A. Neblo, Kevin Esterling & David Lazer.

This paper reports two field experiments involving 21 online town‑hall meetings between citizens and a U.S. Representative or U.S. Senator. The experiments find that participating in these deliberative town halls significantly changed participants’ policy preferences, perceptions of the Member of Congress, and political behavior polisci.osu.edu.

 Logos, Ethos & Pathos: Mechanisms of Persuasion in a Deliberative Field Experiment 

Authors: William Minozzi, Kevin Esterling, David Lazer & Michael A. Neblo.

Prepared for the 2012 Midwest Political Science Association meeting, this working paper explores how rhetorical appeals (logos, ethos, and pathos) operate during deliberative experiments. It analyses data from a field experiment and argues that ethos (credibility) and pathos (emotional appeals) can be as important as logical arguments in persuading citizenspolisci.osu.edu.

A Theory of Deliberation as Interactive Reasoning 

Authors: William Minozzi, Michael A. Neblo & David A. Siegel.

The paper develops a formal theory of deliberation that bridges normative theory and formal modeling. It argues that existing game‑theoretic models miss core features of deliberation and proposes a new model where deliberation is interactive reasoning with public arguments rather than strategic bargaining polisci.osu.edu.

The Weight of Passion: A Revisionist History of Political Emotion

Author: Michael A. Neblo.

This working paper argues that modern research on political emotion should reconnect with the Western philosophical tradition. Neblo claims that advances in cognitive science offer opportunities to refine arguments about emotion’s role in politics, but warns against portraying such work as a radical break with tradition. The paper positions emotion and reason as mutually reinforcing in democratic theory, polisci.osu.edu.

Democratic Narrative: Founding the Self and State in Magical Realist Novels (Draft)

Author: Michael A. Neblo.

This working paper explores the relationship between liberal democratic theory and identity formation. Neblo uses magical realist novels (Günter Grass’s The Tin Drum, Gabriel García Márquez’s One Hundred Years of Solitude, Salman Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children, and Toni Morrison’s Beloved) to examine how individuals and nation‑states reinvent themselves during periods of founding and refounding. The paper treats magical realism as a metaphor for the synthesis of individual and collective identities.polisci.osu.edu.

 Motive Matters: Liberalism & Insincerity (Draft, Jun 2014)

Author: Michael A. Neblo.

This working paper argues that political discourse may require more ad hominem arguments than liberal theory admits. He critiques liberal democratic views that treat hypocrisy and insincerity as minor issues and contends that John Rawls’s political liberalism is vulnerable to insincere rhetoric. The paper encourages examining motives to ensure democratic legitimacy, polisci.osu.edu.

Barbarians at the Gate & Neighbors Next Door: Policy Knowledge, Anxiety & Public Opinion about Immigration in the U.S. (Draft, 2010)

Authors: Robert Gulotty & Michael A. Neblo.

This draft uses a survey experiment to study how factual information about immigration influences public attitudes. It argues that providing information can change how individuals reason about immigration policy, showing that attitudes are shaped by knowledge and anxietypolisci.osu.edu.

Picking People or Pushing Politics: Selection and Influence on Five Network Criteria (Working paper, APSA 2009)

Authors: David Lazer, Brian Rubineau & Michael A. Neblo.

Using data from network studies, this working paper disaggregates five types of social ties (friendship, respect, time spent together, political talk, and aversive ties) to explore how networks influence political attitudes. It finds that friendship ties are the dominant conduit for political influence, polisci.osu.edu.

The Coevolution of Networks and Political Attitudes (Working paper)

Authors: David Lazer, Brian Rubineau, Carol Chetkovich, Nancy Katz & Michael A. Neblo.

This working paper examines how social affiliations and political attitudes co‑evolve. It finds strong conformity tendencies driven by social ties, while political views have less influence on the formation of networks, opensiuc.lib.siu.edu.